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https://www.ryandawson.org/p/trump-had-no-plan-b

«У Трампа не было плана Б»: причины войны и последствия для США

Источник: https://www.ryandawson.org/p/trump-had-no-plan-b

Краткое содержание

Интервью Райана Доусона о войне вокруг Ирана и её экономических/геополитических последствиях. Он утверждает, что Израиль и США рассчитывали на быстрый обвал Ирана, но столкнулись с затяжной войной, блокадой Ормуза и энергетическим кризисом. Большая часть беседы посвящена историческим причинам конфликта, роли Израиля в американских военных кампаниях и уязвимости стран Залива.

Подробности

Доусон описывает исходную стратегию как ставку на «быстрый коллапс» Ирана после убийства лидера и ударов по ключевым объектам. По его словам, Иран не рухнул, а начал массированные удары по базам США и Израилю. Он делает вывод, что у Трампа и Нетаньяху не было запасного сценария.

Он говорит о дефиците перехватчиков и «стенд‑офф» боеприпасов, а также о росте потерь авиации. По его версии, США вынуждены приближаться к зонам действия ПВО, что увеличивает риск поражений и эскалации.

Далее обсуждается Ормуз: Доусон утверждает, что пролив закрыт, а поставки нефти и СПГ из региона резко упали. Это, по его словам, вызвало скачок цен и ударило по мировым цепочкам поставок. Он также говорит о том, что альтернативные маршруты не компенсируют потери объёмов и лишь частично снимают давление.

Он подчёркивает, что союзники США будут винить Вашингтон и Израиль, а не Иран, поскольку атака стала причиной блокады. В его логике это подрывает американские позиции и облегчает соперникам получение выгод, особенно в Азии.

Исторический блок: Доусон утверждает, что войны в Ираке, Сирии и Ливии были частью долгой стратегии Израиля по устранению региональных противников. Иран, по его версии, — «последняя цель» этой линии. Он приводит пример лжи о WMD в Ираке как аналог нынешней риторики.

В энергетической части говорится о слабости инфраструктуры Залива и о том, что их запасы продовольствия и топлива малы. Это усиливает кризис и вынуждает США смягчать санкции против России и Ирана, чтобы стабилизировать рынок.

Дополнительно Доусон упоминает, что страны Азии имеют ограниченные стратегические резервы, поэтому США вынуждены смягчать санкции и позволять закупки у России. Это, по его мнению, демонстрирует политическую слабость и отсутствие контроля над энергетическим рынком.

Он также говорит о провале координации с союзниками, которые не были предупреждены заранее, и называет это ударом по репутации США.

Основные тезисы

  • Израиль и США, по версии Доусона, рассчитывали на быстрый коллапс Ирана, но этого не произошло.
  • Иран ответил массированными ударами по базам США и Израилю, что затянуло конфликт.
  • У Трампа и Нетаньяху, как утверждается, не было «плана Б» на случай провала.
  • США и Израиль испытывают дефицит перехватчиков и высокоточных боеприпасов.
  • Потери авиации и необходимость приближаться к ПВО повышают риск дальнейших потерь.
  • Ормуз закрыт, поставки нефти и СПГ из региона резко снизились.
  • Это вызывает скачок цен и глобальную нестабильность на рынке энергоресурсов.
  • Союзники США, по мнению автора, будут винить Вашингтон и Израиль, а не Иран.
  • Конфликт выгоден России и Китаю: они получают выгоды от роста цен и ослабления США.
  • Доусон утверждает, что война — часть долгой стратегии Израиля по устранению региональных противников.
  • Он приводит аналогию с Ираком и ложными заявлениями о WMD.
  • Иран, по его версии, готовился к обороне: подземные комплексы, горный рельеф и опыт санкций.
  • Страны Залива уязвимы: низкие запасы топлива и высокая зависимость от импорта.
  • США вынуждены частично смягчать санкции против России и Ирана, чтобы удержать рынок.
  • Итог: война превращается в долгую, затратную кампанию без ясного выигрыша для США.

Значимость

Материал отражает жёстко критическую интерпретацию войны, в которой США представлены как сторона, втянутая в конфликт ради интересов Израиля и несущая основные издержки. Центральные темы — энергетический кризис, отсутствие стратегии выхода и долгосрочный геополитический ущерб.

🧾 Транскрипт (формат)

Iran does not collapse. Instead, they start firing ballistic missiles at all the U.S. bases along the Gulf and Israel itself, and they're still doing it. And it appears President Trump and Netanyahu did not have an off-ramp, do not have a plan B. They're unable to find or destroy these ballistic missiles, and they're unable to defend them. They've run out of interceptors, and they're running out of what's called standoff munitions. So they said, oh, it's short-term pain for long-term gain, blah, blah, blah. It's not short-term pain. The pain is increasing. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. LNG is at zero. Oil is almost at zero out of that region. It's 25% of all the, of what I call the Maritime Silk Road has been, it's collapsed. Other than some ships going to China. But the Gulf, I mean, 72%, you can't just replace that. They're going to have to burn through the reserves. So this war can't last, but as long as the Strait's closed, America is going to lose all its allies because they're not going to blame Iran for closing the Strait. They're going to blame Israel and America for attacking Iran because that's why they closed Strait. Good day, everybody. I am just Steve Yang here with Natural Resource Stocks, where we mine for stories that matter. And there's a lot going on right now. Tensions with Iran, instability across the Middle East, a lot of geopolitical noise out there, and it's not always easy to separate signal from noise. So today, I'm joined by Ryan Dawson, an independent geopolitical analyst and host of the ANC Report. Ryan, thanks for being here. How are you? Good to be with you. It's a lot to cover.

It's hard to know where to start. That's why I brought you in, my friend. Well, Ryan, if you can, let's start with the bird's eye, the 50,000 foot view. If you can kind of, you know, I like to understand geopolitics, I guess, in a way as a four-way chess board, just kind of like understanding what's everybody thinking, who's on the board, who are the major players. If you can just kind of tell me what's going on, how you see things. So in a normal course with any war, you have your stated reasons and then you have the real reasons. And similar with Iraq or Syria, Libya, any of these recent conflicts, there is the rhetoric and then there's the reality. And it's no different for Iran. This isn't anything Iran recently did. It's not about their nuclear program. It's not about protests or liberating women or whatever. This has been a 40-year plan. And Netanyahu said that it came out of his own mouth. You can go back. He wrote a book, actually, that laid out all the countries Israel wanted demolished and they're going to use the U.S. as a weapon. In fact, there's a sort of infamous take from Wesley Clark talking about when he was in the Pentagon, they came down from upstairs and they handed him the script of, you know, seven different countries they wanted to attack in five years. And it's straight out of Netanyahu's book.

He wants to get rid of these, what he calls state sponsors of terrorism. The irony is Israel is the state sponsor of terrorism. They commit terrorism on Palestine. They committed terrorism in Lebanon. They sponsored ISIS in Syria. They're guilty of everything they accused Iran of doing. Iran's the one that fought ISIS. They were actually fighting terrorism. But Iran was the last piece. And they're kind of victims of their own success because they did successfully get the U.S. to attack Iraq twice. And it was not about weapons of mass destruction. That was a lie. And they knew it the whole time. It was about removing any military or economic resistance to Israeli hegemony. And Saddam had sent scud missiles at Israel in the first Gulf War. And they wanted to get rid of him. And they did. And they got America to do it. And they lost trillions of dollars in the Iraq war. There were no WMDs. And we found out that wasn't a mistake. It was an intentional lie. So it was like after kicking Vietnam syndrome, they now have Iraq syndrome. They couldn't get boots on the ground. So when they moved into Syria, they used proxies. And they used these Gulf states that are involved in this war in Iran, too. So you get like Qatar, the UAE, of course, Saudi Arabia, Arabia, who are sponsoring what I call rent-a-terrorists.

So Al-Nusra Front and HGS. HGS got a lot of its money from Turkey. But that money that Turkey used is coming from other sources anyway. And so the CIA and the various intelligence agencies create Al-Qaeda in Syria. Al-Qaeda in Iraq goes to Syria. So we saw that hundreds of thousands of people murdered in that war by proxy forces. And now Jelani is shaking hands with Trump in the White House. And of course, you know, Libya, and it just continues. Iran was the last power rival left. And they've attacked him three times. This is true promise four. And Iran had pretty weak reactions. You know, they sent some missiles. It gets intercepted, whatever. They hit Negev base, whatever. And so they thought, okay, they're weak. We can take them out. The land bridge to Hezbollah has been destroyed because Syria has been taken over by ISIS. They don't have, they have all these protests because it's AstroTurf, the CIA finance, MEK terrorists, Baluchistani terrorists. Their currency had collapsed. They got the EU to go along with that. They've been sanctioned for decades. And so they thought they'd been softened up enough. And if they kill the Ayatollah, that everything would collapse. And they had no plan B. So Israel hits, they kill the Ayatollah. Iran does not collapse. Instead, they start firing ballistic missiles at all the US bases along the Gulf and Israel itself. And they're still doing it. And it appears President Trump and Netanyahu did not have an off-ramp, do not have a plan B. They're unable to find or destroy these ballistic missiles. And they're unable to defend them. They've run out of interceptors. And they're running out of what's called standoff munitions. So once those are gone, you have to get closer to hit your targets. And that's when the air defense can start threatening your air force. And they already started losing some F-15s and refuelers. It's just been a disaster. And it's emboldened all of their traditional economic rivals. It's been very good for China, Russia, the ones that they're supposedly at odds with. They had to lift sanctions that they had placed on Russia over the Ukraine war. Because without the Gulf Arab's oil and natural gas, the American allies can't get it. So they had to lift, like India only had about nine days worth of reserves. So they had to allow them to buy from Russia. Now China, Japan, Korea, they have about 200 days of reserves because they think ahead. But the Philippines, they need it desperately. Taiwan needs it desperately. So they have to start allowing it. Now, it's not just the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It's the physical damage inflicted on the Gulf states. So even if you're allowed to get the oil that was already there on thousands of ships that's trapped to leave, it's still not that much because they're not producing any new oil. LNG is at zero in Iraq and Qatar and Kuwait.

And oil is extremely low. Other than Saudi Arabia, it's basically stopped. And then you have to look at the other things, derivatives of that, like petrochemicals go into fertilizers, plastics, all kinds of stuff come from oil. And then you got to look at the import side to those areas import 80% of their food or more. And they weren't stocking up. No one. The US did not inform their allies. US and Israel just went on this solo. They were so confident that the war would be over in 48 hours. And it wasn't. And they don't have an answer for the offense that Iran prepared. And it also, it also seems like, um, Trump is not listening to anybody who would have the answer. He's isolated himself to a bunch of yes men. Ron, I got so many questions. I'll break down what I just said. First of all, you mentioned this has been a 40 year plan and the whole initiative, the it's been on Israel's mind to use us as a weapon for a while.

Uh, and Iran is the last part of the puzzle. Uh, so how exactly does us and Israel objectives align here? Do they at all? And why and how can Israel use, uh, us as a weapon? And why would I'm very glad you asked that because I'm going to shift the paradigm because you really have to stop thinking of nations acting in their national interest. Like this is good for the country. And like, this will benefit the people will make more money or something. States do not represent their populations. States represent the donor classes that own them. And so like the war in Iraq didn't help the United States at all. It cost trillions of dollars with no benefit. You didn't get oil. You already had it with oil for food program. It costs less to buy than it does to steal. You just end up with a lot of dead people. You run through munitions. It's not, it's not the MIC because things get blown up. It's, it was ridiculous, but it's all good for Israel because Israel does end up with 77%, three fourths, a little bit more than three fourths of all their oil comes from Iraq after America took out Iraq.

But what does America get? Hatred from the entire world, permanent hatred from Iraq, 6,000 dead American soldiers, more from the veteran suicides. Like, well, why would they do something against their national interest? Because they don't work for the national interests. They work for lobbies and special interests and a pack as a 98%, you know, all their incumbents win. Uh, they run the media and they decide who gets elected and who doesn't. And if you don't serve Israel, you don't get elected. And if you oppose Israeli policy, they'll label an antisemite and it's ridiculous, but it works because calling someone racist in the United States, like you, it would be better to be a rapist than a racist. Like if you, if you were a rapist, you could still work in Hollywood or something, you know, or be a priest or something. But if you're a racist, that's it. You know, like if he just said Obama or whatever, uh, if they said the N word, you would lose your job immediately. But if you kill actual Africans in Libya, that's okay.

It's the weirdest thing like murder and all that, that doesn't resonate. Uh, but if racism, then you're Hitler and Hitler did genocide. Like that's the thing. So being accused of being antisemitic is so powerful because that basically means, well, who was very antisemitic? The Nazis. And that's drilled in our our head is the most evil thing that ever happened in history. Like worse than redheads. But it was a very evil thing. I wouldn't put it number one, but it's, it's bad, but that wasn't caused by racism. World War II, everybody was racist. I mean, U S didn't even have integrated army for another 20 years, 1965, you know, they still had segregation in their own country. The only, um, non-whites allowed to in combat where native Americans, they'd been in every war. Other than that, uh, they didn't, I mean, they were just as racist as the Germans or anyone else. And so it was, they all, it was not about that. It was about the treaty of Versailles and annexation after World War I, but it's colored as like racism calls the whole thing. And that works. And now later when Jewish supremacists are ethnically cleansing Palestinians, bombing civilians in Lebanon, raping prisoners, whatever they want to do, you are not allowed to criticize it. Cause you'll get called anti-Semitic and then you're a non-person and you'll either be thrown out of school, lose your job, be the platform. They can ruin your life with a word. And so people don't up until very recently, up until, until October 7th, really no one would go near it and they would just do whatever Israel wants. And then you look at the lobbies. Israel has the strongest lobby.

Palestine doesn't have a lobby. Yemen doesn't have a lobby. Saudi Arabia does. You know, they always side with the wealthier party. It doesn't matter if they're Muslim or Jewish, whatever it matters, do they have money or do they not? And the ones that don't, Yemen, Palestine, Sudan, is that they get crushed. And the ones that do, these wealthy sheikhs, these Zionists, and that they get served. You serve them. And that's how governments work. They don't work for your national interest. They work for their own personal, commercial interest. And they'll get, you know, free vacations, big donations, sell to Allison, a hundred million dollars to Trump, more money to his children. That's what they're working for. They don't care about America. They're not loyal to soil or anything. These are international conglomerates that work for their own, their own interest. And they use the state as an apparatus to enforce things on the market that they can profiteer from. That's how the world really works. Man, Ryan, thanks for giving me the, whichever pill in the matrix it is. I feel like you just like woke me up from a slumber or something. Uh, so, so this war isn't about nukes. Really? No, they didn't have new, they don't have nukes and they knew that. Um, there was this like, okay, so they put sanctions on Iran to soften them up. The two strong didn't made. You start with sanctions. You try and get the public to turn. You try and get a color revolution from within. If you can, they go through steps and it starts with the economic fight. John Perkins wrote a book on this economic hit, man. It's pretty good. Really wild thing. I lost that book on a train in Japan. I felt like I was sleeping and I left it in a seat and normally you get those back, but I guess someone picked it up. I found that exact same book in a, uh, store in Korea 12 years later, because it has my notes in it. What? Yes. That's like, that's like the movie Serendipity. Yeah. Uh, probably Kate Beckinsale or something like the book came back to you. So did you buy the book? I'm in another country. I don't know how it got out. It's in English too. It was in English, but I was reading it and, uh, I loaned it to a friend. I'd already read it and I loaned it to a friend and nada, and I was getting it back, but I stayed out at his house long drinking, whatever. And I came back. I right after I got the book back, I lost it. I left it on a train. 99% of the time you lose something in Japan. You can just call them. It's still sitting on the train, but it wasn't. Somebody got it. It ended up in Korea and I found it again. And it's on my bookshelf. John Perkins. I was like, man, is there something I'm supposed to see in here that I miss? Like, it's like a sign. That is crazy. They started anyway, they started with sanctions on Iran, which doesn't benefit the United States. All these people are like, Ooh, petrodollar, blah, blah, blah. I'm like, no, it's the opposite. If you just traded in dollars, they're happy to trade in dollars. So is Venezuela.

So is Russia. They'd love to be on SWIFT. They'd love to use the dollar. There's no rule saying you have to use it, but you have to pick something. So you don't have all these different currencies and volatility and everything. So you just use something. Putting people on sanctions makes them get away from the dollar. It doesn't make them use it, but you're not buying anything from them. You put sanctions on them and they could do bilateral trades or they could trade in dollars with someone else, whatever. But eventually if they see that dollars can be frozen, it's kind of like, it doesn't matter how well PayPal works. If they're going to censor people over political reasons, it's not safe to use because you just one day it isn't there. And that's how they're like, Oh, we're using dollars and now they're frozen. So they want to get away from it. When they did that to Iran and Venezuela, the rest of the world's like, well, yeah, they're just, but when they did it to Russia, people started moving away from the dollar. Like, okay, they can happen to anybody. It's not just a, this is a top tier country, you know, with so many resources. And with Iran, they knew everyone knew it was the Zionist lobby, but they, it's not for the dollar. It's not, it's for Israel's ideology of, they have these weirdo Christian Zionists and Jews that think God's a real estate agent and promise them land. And by them, they mean like their ethnic group And they can just murder everyone and take it. And Iran's like, no, you can't just murder innocent people. That's insane. But no one stood up for Palestine or Syria other than Iran. They just watched them die. And that was the saddest thing. Like they were dropping bombs on hospitals. They were dropping bombs on apartment buildings. And I'm like, at least, at least like sanction them, at least stop trading with them. And I guess Bolivia and Venezuela did. And I think in Ireland did some in Spain a little bit, but pretty much they just let them kill out 71,000 civilians. And I'm sure the number is probably higher. And so, and this is what, you know, this is why Iran's like, you're not doing that here. I mean, over a million died in Iraq, 100,000 people died a year under those sanctions between the two wars. And both wars were started based on lies. There were no babies on incubators. There was no yellow cake uranium. There was no reconstituted nuclear weapons program, no anthrax, no VX gas, no WMDs of any kind. They just needed an excuse. No anthrax, that was one of the lies. No, no anthrax. That's all I heard was anthrax. Like, be careful when you open up the mail. Well, after 9-11, there was an anthrax attack and they blamed it on Iraq. They said the lead hijacker who was on flight 11 that hit the north side of the North Tower was at a meeting in Prague where he got anthrax from senior Iraqi officials. It wasn't true. But the origin of that lie was Israeli security forces. And then it got passed through James Woolsey, former director of the CIA, to the New York Observer, which is owned by Charles Kushner, Jared Kushner's father, now in the Trump administration. And they just lied. They just made it up. There was no meeting in Prague. Iraq didn't have anthrax. Al-Qaeda didn't have anthrax. That anthrax came from Fort Chetrick, Maryland, out of our own labs. It was stolen by a guy named Philip Zachariah. And that's a whole other story. But Al-Qaeda did not send anthrax to 9-11. But by making that lie, they thus attached Iraq to Al-Qaeda and Iraq to 9-11 when Iraq had nothing to do with September 11th at all or Al-Qaeda. And they did not have anthrax. Never had anthrax. It was genetically traced back to our own labs. We know where it came from. They were doing gain-of-function research on it. That's what Fort Detrick does. It comes from Dugway and then it goes to Detrick where they do the... We used to call it weaponization. Now they call it gain-of-function because it sounds... What function are you gaining?

Make it more deadly? That's weaponization. Duh. But post-COVID, they call it gain-of-function, whatever. Right. I'm going to have to have you come back for another... The thing is, the point of all that is, you can drill in on any of these claims. The yellow cake uranium from Niger. Everyone knew that was a lie. It had obsolete military seals. The dates changed within the document because they didn't change the date in every place. And worst of all, it's signed by an obsolete foreign minister. Adele, the guy that signed it, it would be like today getting a document and it's signed Donald Rumsfeld or Reagan or something. It's like, why? They're not even alive. It does in 26. That's how bad it was. And the CIA said, this is bogus. It has the wrong person's signature. It's got the wrong military seals because they had the stamp on it. The dates have been swapped but not in every place. So they're inconsistent. So they're lying. What is this?

This is trash. But it ended up in Bush's speech in Ohio and then later in the State of the Union where he said, oh, they're getting yellow cake uranium from Africa. Meaning, I don't think he said yellow cake. He just said uranium. But it's oxidized uranium. We need to process to build a bomb, whatever. It wasn't true. And they said it anyway. And it made it look like then Condoleezza Rice goes on and says, oh, we can't let the smoking gun be a mushroom cloud. She said that to Tim Russert. And then they're like, the phrase, because they always have a phrase. Iran's phrase was short-term pain for long-term gain. Back then it was, we got to get them there before they get us here. And that's why every network just kept repeating the phrase. And it's rinse and repeat. It just looks more ridiculous now because we have the internet. We didn't have that in 2002 and 2003. Like it was like a baby. Now with Telegram and X and all that, you can, in YouTube, like you can cut out and say, look at them all saying the same thing. Isn't that weird? That's orders from above. You don't have a free media.

You don't have, you don't have to control all the journalists. You just have to control the editors because it bottlenecks. And they decide what you see and what you don't. And the journalists know. They start to self-censor like, well, if I say that, they're not going to air it. And they kind of like morph themselves into what they know is allowed. And then you end up, that's all you, you get. So they said, oh, it's short-term pain for long-term gain, blah, blah, blah. It's not short-term pain. The pain is increasing. The straight of Hormuz is closed. LNG is at zero. Oil is almost at zero out of that region. And it's 25% of all the, of what I call the Maritime Silk Road has been, it's collapsed. Other than some ships going to China, you know. I want to ask you, I want to ask you about that. So like, you know, China ships get a free pass maybe. And I'm hearing that. You're not going to shoot a Chinese boat. I'm hearing that maybe there's word out there, if you can validate or, you know, is it true that maybe ships can pass as long as oil is traded in the Chinese yuan instead of dollars?

One, is that true? And two, does that push us towards a petro-yuan that challenges the petro-dollar sort of thing? Well, I mean, they better sell it in something other than dollars. I mean, they're at war with the United States. Why not sell it in yuan? And they've done this before. I mean, countries have, everyone thinks you're forced to buy in dollars. You're not. And it's not just oil. It's anything. All international trade, furniture, whatever, it's in dollars because it's convenient. But it's not like you have to. Korea and Japan will trade with each other in yuan or yen sometimes. India does that in the rupee now and then. But a lot of people rather have dollars because they're easy to liquidate. I know you're like, well, a dollar is liquid, but you know what I mean. Like, it's easy to spend it. Whereas, let's say Thailand wants to buy oil from Mexico or just like whatever. They don't need pesos and they don't need baht. Like, what are they going to spend those on? They're just going to convert them to dollars anyway and then use the dollars on whatever because the dollar is accepted everywhere because it's tied to the largest market. It's very easy to fence a dollar because of the U.S. That's why people use dollars. It's not a gun to their head or anything like on the conspiratorial. But everyone's like, oh, my God. But the thing is, what will hurt them is people are not going to buy. Actually, people are just going to start selling off U.S. bonds and treasuries. They're not going to hold on to them. And Japan and China, I think Japan is the most. China is the second most. And they're starting to sell off U.S. treasuries. And, you know, I don't blame them. Like, their stunt with this war for Japan, it's 72% of their fossil fuels come from the Gulf. 72%. They import 99% of their fossil fuels. Japan doesn't have any coal, natural gas, oil, nothing. Japan survives by making finished products and selling those. They don't have raw resources besides steel and some things like that. Korea, I think it's around 52%. But Korea buys coal from Russia, but not oil. And Japan's the opposite. They buy oil from Russia, that other 18% or whatever. And some from the United States. They get coal from Canada. But the Gulf, I mean, 72%. You can't just replace that. They're going to have to burn through the reserves. So this war can't last. But as long as the straits closed, America is going to lose all its allies. Because they're not going to blame Iran for closing the strait.

They're going to blame Israel and America for attacking Iran. Because that's why they closed the strait. But the Yuan, like, yeah, it'll help China do direct trade. And Iran needs some kind of foreign currency because their own currency has collapsed. That's what happened before this war. It was a currency collapse from getting cut off from the EU. And so, you know, they had to print money. And so they really want foreign capital and dollars. You know, they don't want to help the U.S. So Yuan's a nice choice. But they'll, I mean, I think they'd accept whatever. They're saying Yuan on Twitter. It's better to have everything in one instead of doing different, you know. But, yeah, I mean, China is there. Even though it's a lower percentage, it's far larger in total volume because China is massive. So there's your main customer. India is close, too. So I want to go back to what you're saying about the lobbyists, you know, being benefited as opposed to, you know, a war like this benefiting nations or the United States. It kind of perhaps helps put the, you know, bring some clarity to that.

But if you can help me understand, it seems like the Congress, you know, didn't really, Trump didn't have the support of Congress. to execute this. And he kind of, maybe a narrative was put out there, and Israel and Washington move swiftly with a 48 hour, hoping it's going to be over in 48 hours. You mentioned, you know, certain weapons are, you know, dwindling away. You've mentioned, you know, the pressure being felt by, you know, other nations with regard to trade and energy. So where does this end? I mean, where do we go? How does this work end? It's very interesting because you would think you've got big energy. That's a big one. Like, that's a big, that's a big force. You've got big tech because all these, like in Dubai, their AI, things are getting blown up. Citibank got bombed. Like, banks, tech, oil, all these things together still have less power than the Israel lobby. And it's like, man, how can you outspend all of those combined? Like, oh, that's not how they get the power. They bribe, but they do a little bit worse than that. And that's what this is. That's why we call it Epstein's fury. They got him over the barrel. And, you know, Trump was central in that ring. And so when the Zionist says jump, he says off which building?

These guys, like, they're caught dead to rights trafficking underage children for commercial sex to the most wealthy individuals in the world. And it's like they don't bribe Congress. The donors do that. You bribe the donors. If you get the donor class, you get everybody under the donor class. It's like vampires. Like, just go after the head one. If you can get the mega donors compromised, now you control what they control. And that's what Epstein was all about. Like, go right after. It's donating to universities, donating to congressional fund, to whatever. The big whales. Then you got everything. So you just aim right at the hedge funds. You aim at the hedgies, the billionaire class. And, you know, you look at these names. The Glenn Dubins. The Jess Staley's. The Bill Gates. Like, these are Lawrence. You know, Larry Summers. These are the richest people in the world. They all knew Epstein. Why? They're not going to play tennis with them or something. You know? It's not like Bear Stearns needs this guy to teach them how to launder money. It's not like they need this guy to teach them how to buy an escort. There's only one thing that he had that was special that you couldn't get on your own. And we all know what that was. Ryan, you, going back to the Matrix, I don't remember which pill was what, but you certainly giving me the other pill that I'm not used to here. So going back to, like, so you given us a new paradigm or given me a paradigm that, you know, I've suspected for quite a bit. But every time they're like, oh, it's to block energy from China.

Oh, it's the petrodollar. Oh, it's the military industrial complex. Oh, we wanted to steal the oil. There's no oil in Syria. We invaded them anyway. They were never a big exporter. Like, no, it's none of that stuff. It's Israel. All that's a blame shift from Israel. Like, it is. It's them. They're the ones spending billions of dollars on our politicians. And AIPAC runs. It's not the Illuminati or any secret. It's their, it's not a secret. They do it openly, right in front of you. They bribe your Congress and they obey. Well, that's not a very happy. They bribe your Congress through the donor class. But like, donor class bribes the Congress, but the donor class answers to them. Ryan, is there a place where people can look, find reliable news? I mean, I actually, when we do this, why don't you tell us about the ANC, what it's all about? Oh, ANC stands for Anti-Neocon. And I think Neocon, the oldest reference to that stands for neoconservative, but I think Jim Loeb started it and then Justin Raimondo made it popular. He used to be the chief editor of antiwar.com. And so I was like, oh, that's great because political terms seem to change over time. Like, what does liberal mean? What's conservative mean? What do they kind of shift from decade to decade? But if you're anti something, it's hard for them. I'm like, well, I am not that. So, I mean, I'm the anti-neocon. So, whatever the neocons want to call themselves is a bunch of warmongering, Zionist, lunatics, whatever.

I'd just be opposed to those. Because that, in my lifetime, that's been the faction that's caused the most pain. That's who brought us to Iraq War and all the conflicts of my life. You know, you want to go, historically, there have been other factions, you know, with the genocide of American Indians. A lot of horrible things have happened. But in recent times, they're in the driver's seat, the neocons. And they got the name neo for, like, conservatives used to be, like, fiscal conservatives, fiscal responsibility, you know, don't live on your means, kind of the Ron Paul. They're almost now what used to be conservative is libertarian. And neocon is like the train wreck between the old Cold War types and the Zionist lobby. So, it's like war, imperialism, but for Israel, not even in your own interest. Not that imperialism is good if it is in your own interest. You can't just go around murdering people. But it's imperialism for a state that you don't even live in. Right. It doesn't benefit the United States to bomb Gaza, for example, at all. You get absolutely nothing out of that. It's not war. But they gave them the weapons. We give them three, now $4 billion a year. It's about $11 million a day. Why? We gave them the JDAMs that they dropped on churches and mosques and apartments. And we knew what they were doing. And they shoot journalists. They have prison rape. And they heroicize the rapist. They murder babies. They've made human candles where they dump kerosene down someone's mouth and light them on fire from the inside out.

They have mutilated all manner of torture. They have committed every war crime there is. The sickest thing is when other nations have done things like this in the past, they have to at least lie to the public. When America went to war with Iraq, they had to lie to them and say, well, they've got these weapons. It wasn't true, but they had to lie. Americans were mad when two people got shot by ICE. And there's conflict. Well, this lady's in her car or whatever. But there was like, you can't just shoot civilians. That's what everyone agreed with. And they agreed with, well, was this situation allowed or not? And you can argue about it. But the sentiment was, you can't just shoot somebody. But in Israel, if they just want to shoot somebody that's not Jewish, it's fine. The public doesn't have a problem with it. And that's sick because that's unique. Anywhere else in the world, you'd have to have some pretext to say, well, they were about to attack me. Or whatever. You have to say some kind of lie. Not in Israel.

You're just killing Amalek, fulfilling prophecy, whatever. These people are, the picture that is painted of like Muslim fanatics is true about Jewish supremacists. They really dehumanize everyone that isn't them. And they are willing to slaughter their neighbors. And they don't, they not only don't have remorse or empathy, they actually relish and delight in doing it. And that's as sick as people can get. And we give them money and we give them weapons. And the same thing with ISIS. You can't really get lower than a Salafist, Wahhabi, Sunni fanatic that will chop off someone's head for not being the exact sect of Islam as themselves. Like, and these are the people we get in bed with and arm and finance over and over again. Al-Shabaab, Boko Haram, MEK, ISIS, Al-Qaeda in Iraq, APQA, the OG Al-Qaeda freedom fighters in Afghanistan, the Contras in Nicaragua. Like, they're all U.S.-sponsored, CIA-sponsored. We are evil. Like, this is the, but parasites go to the strongest host and that's the United States. It's got the most industry, the biggest military. They can just print money and offset some of that on others. And so this is where they concentrate.

And because our media is, we don't really have one, people are unaware of it. I don't think the population is on board. I know it isn't. I know most people, almost all people outside of Israel do not believe in rape or murder or just shooting kids or women or kidnap, all this stuff. No one agrees with it. But we're constantly doing it and constantly supporting people doing it. Now, how does that happen? It happens because they don't know about it because the media is talking about the Oscars or whatever. We were watching the Oscars yesterday or the other day, but the lobbyists, you know, or not the lobbyists, the editors, you said, you don't need to, you just all you got to do is control the editor and you got a bottleneck. It would be impossible to pay every journalist. It's undoable. It's too many. But for the major papers, if you get the editors, then it's the same thing because they decide what's printed and what isn't. And that's what's controlling the narrative that we get. Yeah. And it's state approved. Like, and you can see that on television, televised news. Oh, too big to fail during the mortgage backed security crisis, 2008. They all said the same thing. They all had the same rhetoric on the war propaganda on Iraq. And Gaddafi and then Assad gas his own people, blah, blah. They had the all uniform message on every network. They didn't argue about that we should go to war. They'd argue about whether it should be multilateral or unilateral. They would just, it was a very narrow. They never look at monetary policy. They never look at foreign policy. It's the same with both parties. I mean, Genocide Joe started the war in Ukraine and allowed the Gaza genocide. He did nothing to, you know, he made both worse. He gave money to both $100 billion to Ukraine. All the weapons and money Israel needed to ethnically cleanse their neighbors. And that was the Democrats.

And then Trump gets in. He doesn't end the war in Ukraine. And now he started a war with Iran. It doesn't matter who you vote for. You always get a Zionist lapdog. All right. I know that we're running out of time. So I do want to ask the question again. Just want to make sure I got an answer, get an answer that I'm clear with. But it's been for over 48 hours. The war is still going on. Israel and Washington has no plan B. So how does this war end? Badly for us, for the United States. Trump is an extreme narcissist, megalomaniac. You know, he puts his name on buildings. I'm the bestest. I'm the number one. Everyone shows up. You know how he is. It could end. And there's, I can see this going three different ways. It could end. And this is the best way, the way the war with Yemen ended, where he just declared victory, even though it wasn't and stopped. And they kept firing missiles. You know, he's like, I've beaten the Houthis. I killed a bunch of people. I win and just stop talking about it. And the Houthis still do what they were doing before. That would be the best outcome. But the least likely. He needs some sort of face-saving off-ramp. And I think that's why he was saying, like, Karag Island. And he needs some kind of objective that he can go, do, complete, and declare victory. Like, I destroyed the Navy. I killed the Ayatollah. They don't have an Air Force. I won and quit. Whereas that's such a farce for so many reasons. But he needs some way out of this. And then it doesn't matter if Iran and Israel keep fighting. Because that won't last long without America. Without dad, Israel is toast. There could be concessions. But what Iran is asking for, and they have all leverage right now, is they want reparations for everything the U.S. and Israel destroyed. They want the U.S. to remove its footprint in the Middle East. So no more bases in the states adjacent to Iran. You got to get out of all those little fiefdoms. And they want some international guarantees that you're not going to just regroup and do this again. Because this is the fourth time they attacked them. And they're like, no, no. We got to make sure you are hurt so bad that you will never even think of doing this again. Militarily and economically. And unfortunately, I think a bit more suffering is going to have to continue before the U.S. capitulates. Are you going to need... I'm trying to think of a mediator. Because it can't be Omana.

And China, maybe? Like, there's no one else. It has to be China. No one else can do it to mediate between these two states. China is sharing their satellite intelligence with Iran to help them be more effective. And they should. They can't let Iran fall. If Iran falls, America would set up a toll booth. You're like, oh, you want to pay the passing fee? We can't allow that. It'd be bad for the globe. So, America needs to lose this. And they're going to. Because he can't send in troops in the ground. That's a 30,000 to 40,000 dead soldiers. I mean, you could win eventually. But you'd be fighting for years and years. And you'd be losing a lot of personnel. And they've done this in war games. It's very ugly. And he won't make it past the midterms. Americans don't like... They're very casually averse. They don't want war. They don't see the point in it. They don't like their gas being $3.50. In California, like $5. They're not going to put up with it. So, he thought he could win a war with the Air Force.

Which is so stupid. Because it's a country the size of Western Europe. With 90 million people. That's millions of buildings. And you have hundreds of planes. Even if they had no air defense at all. You wouldn't even have enough bombs. Like, it's just dumb. So, I don't see any kind of operation he can do, ground force or otherwise, where he can do a thing and declare success. He tried sending in the Kurds. They said no. He said, well, don't worry. We're going to escort the oil. That's not happening. Because the land batteries will sink your ships. And he's like, we're going to get international armada. I mean, from France to Japan and everyone in between. Italy, Korea, China. Everybody said no, no, no. You're at it by yourself. And he's like, man, why don't they want to go along with my dumb idea? Because they don't want their ships at the bottom of the Hormuz. That's why. And so, it'd be easier to answer this question if we had rational people. Because I understand rational people. Like, what you ought to do is A and B. But you're thinking, like, what will we actually do? And we're dealing with a child man. And I'm like, I don't know. Trump's retarded. And I'm not. And I don't know how retards think. Like, they. Like, he should never have started the war. You've lost the Gulf states. You had them all. And now they're all gone. Maybe. Not Jordan. But, like, you have lost Bahrain. Bahrain has lost Bahrain. You've lost Kuwait. You lost Qatar. You're going to lose the UAE soon.

Only kiss it goodbye. You're not going to have bases there. You're not going to have a presence there. Saudi Arabia will never be the same. Israel will never be the same. And that's a good thing. That's one good outcome. Other than that, there's nothing good about this. This is so stupid. You're killing thousands of people in Iran over nothing. They're not a threat to the United States at all. They can't even reach the United States. They can't fire a missile across the ocean. Like, this is all for Israel. And you got dragged in and Marco Rubio admitted it because Israel preemptively attacked and killed the Ayatollah. Let them clean up their own mess. That's what a rational person would boo, but we're talking about Trump. And I think he's going to just sit there until he heals, fired, whatever he has left. Jasms, J-Dams, whatever, bombing, empty buildings, whatever. But, you know, and that could go all summer because that's how stupid he is. But he's going to get creamed in the midterms. And then he's going to get impeached. That's his future. He needs to stop the bleeding now. Unfortunately, look at his cabinet. Pete Hegseth, who's like a drunk frat boy with tattoos all over his body that thinks he's going to bring back Jesus. Mike Huckabee, who's like a dispensationalist literalist that put the fun in fundamental illness for fundamentalist. You've got Kushner and Whitcoff, two Zionist real estate tycoon Yankees from New York that don't know anything about war other than video games.

He's not talking to Tulsi. He's not talking to even Vance, who, I mean, at least he's a midwit, which in the Trump administration makes you a genius. You know, RFK Jr. is legitimately a smart person, but he's one of the only people I can think of. God, I wish they had gotten Matt Gaetz instead of Pam Bondi. But then again, there's that airhead. She's at an Epstein hearing. She's like, how about the Dow? I mean, God, lady, you're so detached from reality. If people were raping kids and we're here to talk about Epstein, it's the Epstein hearing. We're doing subpoenas on Epstein clients and you're talking about the Dow. Oh, well, you just, she had little note cards for insults. She got them mixed up. It's embarrassing. I have proxy embarrassment. I'm like, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Our government's retarded. But this is, that's his people. So who's advising? I mean, Marco Rubio is compared to some of the other people I just named smarter than them. But, you know, he's somewhere between like them and like a golden retriever. He's just, he's a national security advisor too. I'm like, what do you, what's your advice, man? Like this isn't Maduro in Venezuela. You can't just pay off the honor guard and go kidnap somebody. This is Iran. This is a 2,000 year old civilization. The Persians, like you are way in over your head and you killed the Ayatollah. You moron. No, they're not going to collapse. The opposite's going to happen. Ryan, this has been, this has been, I think we're going to waste a lot of money, run out of ammo, lose our position, lose all the Gulf states, end up taking the deal that's been offered anyway and just, there is no face saving and maybe this is a good thing. I mean, the U.S. is going to have to leave with his tail between his legs, make some excuses, throw some people under the bus because Trump cannot, he's less accountable than a woman.

So, yeah, it's just going to be a disaster. Ryan, this conversation is interesting. In many ways, if you can tell us, if the audience were to find you, how can people find your website, your socials? Yeah, the only social I'm allowed on is Twitter after Elon because I wasn't allowed before that to truthy and it's RY and Liberty, RY Liberty and that's my Twitter and it's, I do, I say a lot of facetious stuff because dark humor is how I deal with the sickness and as you can tell, you're in there and I have a sub stack, it's just my name, RyanDawson.org, all one word, no spaces, RyanDawson.org. I got a free September 11th film that you guys can watch. It goes over everything, the dancing Israelis, Antra, all that stuff. CIA knew, FBI knew. It, that was such a cluster, you know what, and there's a lot of nonsense about it because there's a, there's a whole like genre of what I call a 9-11 coop movement. They're like, Jeff, you don't ever, it's not, I'm not one of those people. This is a serious one, not Alex Jones. This is a for real film. And yet, and I have to say that because that topic has been, become such a tar baby, kind of like the Charlie Kirk shooting is a new conspiracy every day. And that's what happened on 9-11 because we were lied to and what happens, people get so gaslit and there's no real authoritative source when the media is lying to you. They don't, you know, unfortunately they go to charlatans for information. But anyway, RyanDawson.org, free film on 9-11, it's called Empire Unmasked. Watch it, share it, do whatever you want with it. I'm still mad about that event. I mean, 3,000 Americans were killed and launched a war in Afghanistan and Iraq over nothing. Everyone should be angry about it and you should know what actually happened and who's covering it up and, you know, you'll see the common characters. But this is, this war with Iran in a disgusting way is the best thing because I looked at it politically and from a culture war perspective, there just was no other way to fix this. They just needed to lose a war. That's the only way. You can't reason with psychopaths and they're coming down and the moment it ends that we're back on this and we're not never, ever let up on the Epstein files because that's, that's the most vulnerable thing. This war, like part of the reason, like, yeah, yeah, just bomber ran because these people were getting subpoenaed. The Clintons were talking, right? Bill and Hillary got separated. He sat there looking at his reminiscing about his old pictures with little kids like that was happening. And then the war starts and that was it. But Howard Lutnick is subpoenaed. Darren Indyke has been subpoenaed. Richard Kahn. These are Epstein lawyers. I got a list of, I know exactly who need, they need to haul in there in question. And this can happen. Ryan, we, we do need to end here, but we, we do need to have you back. And, uh, this is, uh, this is just what you're bringing up as another podcast episode all together, but this has been informative, interesting, uh, revealing, depressing. Uh, and I'm great, grateful for what they're losing for the first time they are physically losing a war and they've pissed off all these wealthy people like to do for Israel. You're sacrificing tech, every ally, all these, yeah, you're making them all mattered in hell. And eventually they'll win. Uh, like I'm looking at, I'm like, you can't take out all those people of all those countries. Like you're making everyone furious. South Korea, where I'm at right now, you know what they're talking? They just threw their president in jail, by the way. They don't put up with corruption in South Korea at all. A lot of their presidents end up in the slammer. There's like, we need nuclear power because we're too dependent on energy from the Middle East. They're going to start building. And you know what happens once you have nuclear power, you start getting nuclear weapons. Like this whole thing is such a, Japan won't do that because they are just anti-nuke for obvious reasons. You know, they got nuked twice. They're not going to do it, but, uh, they will build power plants. It's just, these people are so stupid. And, and it's, it actually may, like, I think, I think I'm allowed to say this. Kim Jong-un is no longer the craziest world leader. Like, he can look at Trump and be like, oh, look at that guy. Like, that guy's, this is the guy that sent poop balloons to the South. You know, that story. That's pretty wild. But he's not, I'm Trump. Ryan, this is another episode. Uh, and we do need to get you back. Uh, thanks for your time. I appreciate it. Uh, everybody. Uh, thanks for listening. I'm just learning everything North Korea does. They're bad at everything. Everyone say smart, stay curious, stay disciplined. Ryan, thanks for your time. I appreciate you. Bye.

Thank you. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Transcription by CastingWords